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MARKET WHIPLASH: 5 Crucial Signs That Will Tell You When The Tariff Storm Has Passed

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With markets in turmoil, knowing these key indicators will help you position your portfolio for the inevitable recovery
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The financial markets have been on a wild ride since President Trump unveiled his sweeping tariff plan. With the S&P 500 experiencing its worst two-day loss since March 2020 and nearly $5 trillion in market value erased, retail investors are desperately searching for signals that might indicate when stability will return.

While market turbulence continues, savvy investors should be watching for these five crucial indicators that could signal the tariff storm is finally breaking.

1. US-China Trade Talks Show Concrete Progress

The most significant catalyst for market recovery would be tangible progress in US-China trade negotiations. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and trade representative Jamieson Greer are scheduled to meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland - marking the highest-level talks since President Trump's tariff push began in early April. These discussions represent the first step toward negotiating a truce since the trade war exploded.

Watch for: Official joint statements (not just from one side), specific tariff reduction agreements, or the establishment of regular negotiation channels. So far, there have been contradictory messages, with Trump claiming meetings are happening while China's Commerce Ministry spokesperson insisted "at present there are absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the U.S."

2. Federal Reserve Policy Signals

The Fed's response to the economic impact of tariffs will be pivotal. Currently, the central bank is caught in a difficult position as tariffs could spike inflation and weaken growth, diminishing the chances of an interest rate cut anytime soon.

Watch for: Changes in Fed Chair Powell's language about inflation risks, especially if he begins acknowledging economic slowdown concerns over inflation fears. The market currently expects about 75 basis points of cuts in 2025, with the first reduction likely in July - any acceleration of this timeline would signal the Fed is more concerned about growth than inflation.
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3. Corporate Earnings Resilience

Companies are starting to quantify the impact of tariffs on their operations. After Nvidia took a $5.5 billion hit from export restrictions on its H20 AI chips to China, its stock tumbled nearly 7%. Similarly, AMD faces charges up to $800 million tied to export restrictions on its MI309 products.

Watch for: Companies maintaining or raising guidance despite tariff headwinds, or executives noting decreased supply chain disruptions in their quarterly reports. Increased capital investment announcements would also suggest companies see the tariff situation as manageable.

4. Tariff Exemption Momentum

The administration has begun granting selective exemptions, creating potential openings. Trump signed an executive order exempting imported cars and parts from the lofty levies, following the rollback of tariffs on electronic products. China has likewise granted tariff waivers on imports of certain U.S. goods.

Watch for: Expansion of exemption categories, particularly for consumer goods, or a formalized process for companies to apply for and receive tariff relief. These would indicate a softening stance on both sides.

5. Market Technical Indicators

Market behavior itself provides clues about sentiment shifts. Stocks have been volatile since Trump's first round of tariffs on April 2, with the S&P 500 initially dropping nearly 15%, only to stabilize and climb for nine straight sessions through a recent Friday.

Watch for: Declining market volatility (VIX index dropping below 20), consistent trading volume increases on up days versus down days, and sector rotation from defensive plays (utilities, consumer staples) back toward cyclicals and growth stocks.

Positioning For The Recovery

The market's response to tariffs has been severe but not unprecedented. Treasury Secretary Bessent noted he's been surprised by the "impatience" in the stock market, seeing the sweeping import duties as the starting point for negotiations which could last several months.

Rather than attempting to time the exact bottom, investors should consider gradually increasing positions in quality companies with strong balance sheets and some domestic insulation from trade disruptions as these positive signals emerge.

The tariff situation remains fluid, but markets eventually find equilibrium. By watching these five key indicators, retail investors can better position themselves for the inevitable recovery that follows even the most turbulent financial storms.

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