Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivered a blunt five-word message that resonated through financial markets: "Let's get on with it." His call for rate cuts, combined with August's disappointing jobs report showing only 22,000 new positions versus 75,000 expected, has led traders to price in aggressive monetary easing. Meanwhile, President Trump's September 8 executive order modified critical tariff exemptions, potentially creating winners and losers across industrial sectors. Gold miners may be capitalizing on what analysts estimate are $2,000+ profit margins per ounce as operational leverage could amplify precious metal gains.
Gold futures surge to close at $3,639.80, establishing new record highs as institutional buying intensifies
Policy Shifts Creating Market Volatility
The Federal Reserve faces mounting pressure after unemployment rose to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, while job creation fell well below forecasts. Trump simultaneously signed Executive Order modifications affecting virtually every trading nation, with effective tariff rates now reaching approximately 17%—potentially the highest since 1933. The "Potential Tariff Adjustments for Aligned Partners" framework creates incentives for comprehensive trade negotiations while exempting critical materials including bullion and strategic minerals.
tons in SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) holdings, increasing as institutional demand for physical gold exposure grows
Winners and Losers Emerging Now
Gold futures surged $37.40 to close at $3,639.80, establishing new record highs as SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) holdings increased to 977.68 tons. Mining companies are reporting strong earnings growth, with Barrick Mining (B) posting a 97% year-over-year net income increase to $1.25 billion. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has outperformed physical gold, gaining 18.8% year-to-date versus GLD's 11.1% advance as operational leverage may amplify precious metal exposure.
odds traders are pricing in for a 25-basis-point Fed rate cut on September 17, with 8% probability of larger reduction
The Regulatory Timeline Investors Must Watch
September 17 marks the Federal Reserve's policy meeting where traders have priced in 92% odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut, with 8% probability of a larger 50-point reduction. Trump's tariff modifications took effect September 8, with aluminum hydroxide, resin, and silicone products now facing reciprocal duties while bullion-related articles gained exemptions. The administration's PTAAP framework establishes negotiation pathways that could potentially modify rates for aligned trading partners through year-end.
average all-in sustaining costs per ounce for gold mining companies, creating substantial profit margins at current $3,600+ prices
Hidden Opportunities Most Will Miss
Gold mining companies currently operate with average all-in sustaining costs around $1,600 per ounce, which analysts suggest could create substantial profit margins at current prices above $3,600. Domestic producers may benefit from tariff exemptions on critical minerals while potentially maintaining pricing power through protected supply chains. Some traders are targeting junior miners through GDXJ for potential leveraged exposure, with Agnico Eagle (AEM) and Newmont (NEM) demonstrating production growth despite cost pressures.
