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AI Giant Beats Earnings Expectations Despite Export Restrictions, But Wall Street May Be Missing the Real Story

NVIDIA Stock Chart and AI Technology
China Trade Restrictions Create $8 Billion Revenue Hit, But Hyperscaler Demand Signals Opportunity

Editor's Note: While NVIDIA's $44.1 billion quarterly revenue beat crushed Wall Street expectations by $800 million, the company's warning about an $8 billion China revenue hit in Q2 reveals the hidden opportunity most investors are missing. Our analysis shows why the market's muted 3% after-hours reaction may signal that institutional money is viewing this geopolitical setback as a prime accumulation opportunity—especially with hyperscalers deploying 72,000 Blackwell GPUs per week and the stock trading at below-average valuations despite record performance.

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NVIDIA Block 3 - Article Intro
Nvidia delivered another blockbuster earnings report Wednesday evening, crushing Wall Street expectations with first-quarter revenue of $44.1 billion—a staggering 69% increase year-over-year that exceeded analyst forecasts of $43.3 billion. The AI chipmaker also reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.81, beating the consensus estimate of $0.75 per share. However, the company's stark warning about an $8 billion revenue hit from China export restrictions in the upcoming quarter sent mixed signals to investors, with shares gaining 3% in after-hours trading despite the geopolitical headwinds.

The China Export Reality Check

Nvidia's management didn't sugarcoat the impact of the Trump administration's expanded export restrictions on AI chips to China. The company revealed it lost $2.5 billion in revenue during the first quarter due to the ban on its H20 chip sales to Chinese customers, and expects the hit to more than triple to $8 billion in the second quarter ending in late July.

$8 BILLION Q2 Revenue Hit Expected
China export restrictions to cost 3x more than Q1's $2.5B loss

Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress noted that "losing access to the China AI accelerator market, which we believe will grow to nearly $50 billion, would have a material adverse impact on our business going forward, and benefit our foreign competitors in China and worldwide." The company took a $4.5 billion inventory write-down charge in the first quarter, though this was less severe than the previously expected $5.5 billion hit.

Hyperscaler Demand Remains Red-Hot

Despite the China setbacks, Nvidia's core business with major cloud providers continues to accelerate at breakneck speed. During the earnings call, CFO Colette Kress revealed that "major hyperscalers are each deploying nearly 72,000 Blackwell GPUs per week, and are on track to clear ramp output this quarter," with Microsoft already deploying "tens of thousands of Blackwell GPUs and expected to ramp to hundreds of thousands of GB200s with OpenAI as one of its key customers."

72,000 Blackwell GPUs
Deployed per week by major hyperscalers

This massive deployment scale demonstrates that AI infrastructure spending remains robust among Nvidia's largest customers, potentially offsetting much of the China revenue decline over time.

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NVIDIA Block 4 - Article Conclusion

Gross Margin Pressure Signals Market Maturation

The company's financial metrics revealed some concerning trends beneath the headline-beating numbers. Nvidia is experiencing gross margin pressure, with margins declining from 78.4% to 70.6% as competition intensifies in the AI chip space. For the current quarter, gross margin is expected to be 72.0%, "plus or minus 50 basis points," with management noting its "work toward achieving gross margins in the mid-70% range late this year."

Gross Margins Under Pressure
Down from 78.4% to 70.6% as competition heats up

This margin compression suggests the AI chip market is beginning to mature and face increased competitive pressures, though margins remain at historically high levels for the semiconductor industry.

Geographic Revenue Diversification Shows Resilience

Nvidia's geographic revenue breakdown highlighted both the China challenge and the company's diversification strength. Singapore was once again the second-largest market for Nvidia, generating roughly $9 billion in revenue, while the company derives over half of its total revenue (53%) from international markets. This diversification provides some buffer against regional disruptions, though Singapore's role as a potential chip smuggling hub to China adds complexity to the export restriction enforcement.

Technical Setup Points to Continued Momentum

Nvidia stock is trading at a lower-than-average valuation as earnings approach, with shares trading at 28.4 times forward earnings versus a five-year average of 40.2 times. The stock has consolidated within a flag pattern following its breakout from a falling wedge, with the recent move higher occurring on above-average trading volume, indicating conviction from larger market participants.

Below Average Valuation
28.4x forward P/E vs 40.2x five-year average

With Nvidia shares having gained 52% from their early-April trough despite the China concerns, the technical picture suggests continued institutional accumulation.

What This Could Mean for Investors

The market's relatively muted reaction to Nvidia's China revenue warning may signal that smart money is viewing this as a temporary setback rather than a structural threat to the AI revolution. With hyperscaler deployment accelerating and the company trading at below-average valuations despite record financial performance, contrarian investors might find this geopolitical uncertainty creating an attractive entry point. The key question isn't whether AI demand will continue—it's whether investors can recognize value when short-term headlines obscure long-term fundamentals. Those who can separate temporary policy noise from permanent technological shifts may find themselves positioned ahead of the crowd when the China trade situation inevitably stabilizes.

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